FY2022 peak 59,431 · 15-yr median ≈ 7,200
| PD month | In queue | Ahead of this PD |
|---|
"Ahead" = everyone from the Sep 2013 cutoff up to that month, + 578 pre-2013.
| PD cohort | Persons | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| ≤2012 left | 578 | USCIS pending I-485 by PD, May 2026 (counts every person) |
| 2013 left | 6,848 | |
| 2014 | 20,211 | |
| 2015–19 /yr | ~24,000 | derived below |
Post–Jan 2015 cohorts can't file I-485 yet, so no inventory exists. USCIS I-140 approvals (India EB-2: 40–47k/yr FY17–19 ≈ PD 2015–17) count principals only and include duplicates; scaled to the surviving 2014 cohort → ~24k persons per PD year.
| India actual | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| EB-1 | 16,604 | 8,809 |
| EB-2 | 4,301 | 3,916 |
| EB-3 | 4,782 | 3,655 |
| EB-4 / EB-5 | ≈0 / ~1–2k | ≈0 / ~1–2k |
Only the EB-2 number drives this page — India fully uses every category, nothing falls down. FY2025 not yet published; FY2026 EB-2 ≈ 9,300 is a reconstruction (DOS confirmed exhaustion May 22 but publishes no total). Wait clock starts Oct 1, 2026.
Adjustments (Sep 2026, after adversarial review): the visible I-485 inventory misses consular/NVC cases (~10–20% of EB demand), unfiled approved I-140s, and EB-3→EB-2 interfilers; attrition (abandonment, EB-1 porting, cross-chargeability) works the other way. Net: queue ×1.05–1.20, plus 3–9 months of post-current processing before approval. The green-card figure is therefore a range, not a date. The filing-date estimate is rougher still — DOS moves it by demand forecasting, in jumps; treat as ±1 yr.
DOS Visa Bulletin · USCIS I-140 FY17–22 · I-485 inventory · 15-yr supply data
Estimates only · not legal advice · data Aug 2026